{"id":1938,"date":"2026-09-30T18:03:47","date_gmt":"2026-09-30T13:03:47","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/ipp-news.com\/?p=1938"},"modified":"2026-09-30T18:03:47","modified_gmt":"2026-09-30T13:03:47","slug":"after-america-leaves-iraq-the-real-test-begins","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/ipp-news.com\/?p=1938","title":{"rendered":"After America leaves Iraq, the real test begins"},"content":{"rendered":"
\n

There are moments in history when the departure of an army carries almost as much meaning as its arrival. September 30, 2026, is one such moment for Iraq.<\/strong><\/p>\n

After more than two decades, the United States is completing its military withdrawal from Iraq.<\/p>\n

The departure, agreed between Washington and Baghdad in 2024, ends the US-led coalition\u2019s military mission in the country.<\/p>\n

For many Iraqis, it closes one of the most painful chapters in the country\u2019s modern history.<\/p>\n

For Iran and its allies, it removes an important counterweight to their influence.<\/p>\n

For Kurdish and Sunni leaders, it raises questions about what happens when a key security partner leaves.<\/p>\n

The timing makes the withdrawal particularly significant. The decision was made long before the current US-Iran war, yet it concludes as the two countries remain at war. Iran-aligned Iraqi factions have also been involved in attacks that have drawn Iraq into wider regional tensions.<\/p>\n

But the most important question is neither whether America should have stayed nor whether Iran will benefit.<\/p>\n

It is simpler: can Iraq finally become master of its own house?<\/p>\n

<\/a>From occupation to sovereignty<\/strong><\/h3>\n

The American invasion removed Saddam Hussein\u2019s regime but also shattered Iraq\u2019s political and security order. Insurgency and sectarian bloodshed followed, and eventually Daesh captured large parts of the country in 2014.<\/p>\n

The fight against Daesh brought the United States back. American air power, intelligence, logistics and training helped Iraqi forces defeat the group\u2019s territorial hold.<\/p>\n

Now that chapter is ending. But the departure of foreign soldiers does not, by itself, create sovereignty.<\/p>\n

A state is sovereign when its institutions can protect citizens, control borders, enforce laws and set security policy without armed groups or foreign powers determining the terms. That is where Iraq\u2019s real test begins.<\/p>\n

<\/a>One state, one security policy<\/strong><\/h3>\n

The hardest issue facing Baghdad may not be the American withdrawal at all. It is the armed groups operating alongside the state.<\/p>\n

Iraq has powerful militias with political influence as well as military capabilities, and some maintain close ties with Iran.<\/p>\n

Baghdad has been trying to bring their weapons under state control, but the process remains politically sensitive.<\/p>\n

Prime Minister Ali Al Zaidi had set September 30 as a deadline for armed groups to disarm, but the most powerful Iran-aligned factions have rejected the prospect or set conditions for handing over their weapons.<\/p>\n

The issue remains unresolved as the US military withdrawal reaches its final stage.<\/p>\n

This creates a fundamental contradiction: how can Iraq claim complete sovereignty if the state does not have exclusive control over the use of force?<\/p>\n

The militias played a significant role in fighting Daesh after the army\u2019s devastating setbacks in 2014, and that contribution cannot simply be erased. But the emergency that helped create their expanded role has changed.<\/p>\n

The challenge now is to bring weapons and military decision-making under a single national chain of command.<\/p>\n

That will require political consensus in Baghdad, as well as care to ensure that the process does not become another source of sectarian confrontation.<\/p>\n

<\/a>Withdrawal is not the same as disengagement<\/strong><\/h3>\n

Another distinction is important: the departure of American troops does not mean the end of American influence.<\/p>\n

Washington will continue to have diplomatic, economic and security relationships with Baghdad.<\/p>\n

The US withdrawal therefore does not leave Iraq with a simple choice between America and Iran. Instead, Baghdad will have to manage relationships with several powerful external actors while preserving room for independent decision-making.<\/p>\n

That matters because sovereignty is not only a military concept.<\/p>\n

Economic dependence can also restrict political choices.<\/p>\n

Iraq\u2019s oil wealth gives Baghdad considerable resources, but its trade, energy and financial relationships with neighbouring and global powers mean that economic policy is inseparable from its wider strategic independence.<\/p>\n

A sovereign Iraq needs the institutional strength to make security and economic decisions according to its own interests.<\/p>\n

<\/a>Not a chessboard<\/strong><\/h3>\n

There is understandable concern that the withdrawal will give Iran and its Iraqi allies greater room to manoeuvre.<\/p>\n

But reducing Iraq to an American-Iranian chessboard would be another mistake.<\/p>\n

Iran has deep political, economic, religious and security ties with Iraq. Baghdad also needs constructive relations with the United States, Turkey and the Gulf states.<\/p>\n

Its national interest lies not in replacing American dependence with Iranian dependence, but in pursuing strategic autonomy: speaking to Washington without becoming its client, dealing with Tehran without becoming its proxy, and working with its Arab neighbours without being drawn automatically into another bloc.<\/p>\n

That is difficult diplomacy.<\/p>\n

It may also be the only sustainable route to genuine independence.<\/p>\n

<\/a>The Saudi opportunity<\/strong><\/h3>\n

Here Saudi Arabia becomes important.<\/p>\n

For years, Iraq\u2019s relationship with Riyadh was overshadowed by Iraq\u2019s turmoil and the Saudi-Iran rivalry. Recently, however, Baghdad has sought a new phase in its relations with the Gulf.<\/p>\n

The effort has acquired greater urgency because of the security risks posed by armed groups operating from Iraqi territory.<\/p>\n

In September, Saudi Arabia said drones launched from Iraq struck its East-West oil pipeline.<\/p>\n

Iraqi authorities later said they had located and seized a drone-launching platform allegedly used in the attack in Maysan province, near the Iranian border. Baghdad also launched an investigation into those responsible.<\/p>\n

The incident is precisely the kind of development that could undermine Iraq\u2019s efforts to improve relations with Riyadh.<\/p>\n

The risk becomes greater if the US-Iran war spreads further across the region.<\/p>\n

If Iran-aligned Iraqi militias retain the ability to operate independently of Baghdad, they could potentially use Iraqi territory to launch attacks against Saudi Arabia or other Gulf states.<\/p>\n

US officials have also expressed concern about Iraqi militias\u2019 ability to attack targets elsewhere in the region, including Saudi Arabia.<\/p>\n

That could create a dangerous chain reaction.<\/p>\n

An attack from Iraqi territory could draw Saudi Arabia deeper into the conflict, invite retaliation against militia positions inside Iraq and place Baghdad under pressure from both its neighbours and its own armed factions.<\/p>\n

This is why militia control is not merely an internal Iraqi issue. It is also a regional security issue.<\/p>\n

If Baghdad cannot prevent armed groups from using Iraqi territory to threaten its neighbours, its claim to full sovereignty will remain incomplete.<\/p>\n

The issue is not about turning Iraq against Iran. It is about giving Iraq more choices.<\/p>\n

<\/a>Daesh has changed, not disappeared<\/strong><\/h3>\n

There is also a danger in declaring victory too early.<\/p>\n

Daesh no longer controls the territory it once held, and Iraq\u2019s security forces are far stronger than they were a decade ago.<\/p>\n

But extremist groups do not need to control cities to remain dangerous. They need gaps in state authority.<\/p>\n

Iraqi and Kurdish security officials have expressed concern about losing some of the intelligence, logistical and surveillance capabilities previously provided by the US-led coalition.<\/p>\n

Reuters reported that Iraqi security forces were also investigating a suspected Daesh cell allegedly preparing attacks to coincide with the US withdrawal.<\/p>\n

That does not mean a repeat of 2014 is imminent. It means Iraq cannot forget the lesson of that period: security vacuums do not remain empty for long.<\/p>\n

<\/a>Kurdistan and the neighbourhood<\/strong><\/h3>\n

Kurdish forces fought alongside the coalition and have depended heavily on American support, so the withdrawal carries particular implications for the Kurdistan Region.<\/p>\n

Kurdish leaders have expressed concern about the loss of US military support, particularly air defence and other capabilities.<\/p>\n

At the same time, Washington is expected to retain some form of security relationship with Iraq after the military withdrawal.<\/p>\n

A stronger central state should not automatically mean a weaker Kurdistan. Nor can Kurdish autonomy substitute for national security arrangements.<\/p>\n

The answer lies in a negotiated relationship between Baghdad and Erbil built around security, constitutional authority and economic interests, rather than periodic confrontation.<\/p>\n

The wider picture is shifting too. Turkey has agreed to gradually hand over the Bashiqa-Zelikan military base to the Iraqi federal government, while Baghdad has committed to addressing armed groups in Sinjar. Turkey continues to maintain other military positions in northern Iraq.<\/p>\n

Alongside the American exit, this points to a broader transition: Iraq is seeking greater control over foreign military footprints on its soil.<\/p>\n

That makes the question of sovereignty even more immediate.<\/p>\n

<\/a>The burden now belongs to Baghdad<\/strong><\/h3>\n

The United States spent more than two decades in Iraq. Thousands of lives were lost, trillions of dollars were spent, governments changed, militias rose, Daesh emerged and was pushed back.<\/p>\n

That era is ending.<\/p>\n

But history rarely leaves a vacuum unfilled. If Iraq strengthens its institutions, brings armed groups under genuine state authority, protects its borders, improves relations between Baghdad and Erbil, and reassures its Gulf neighbours, the end of the US military mission could become something larger than a withdrawal.<\/p>\n

It could mark the beginning of a different Iraqi foreign policy: one based less on choosing between competing powers and more on maintaining relationships with all of them.<\/p>\n

That will require Baghdad to demonstrate something more difficult than simply asking foreign troops to leave.<\/p>\n

It will have to demonstrate that the state can control what happens after they leave.<\/p>\n

America may be leaving Iraq. The harder task is now Iraq\u2019s: to ensure that no other power takes its place.<\/p>\n

Sovereignty is not the absence of foreign soldiers. It is the presence of a state strong enough to decide its own future.<\/p>\n

The writer is a seasoned journalist and writer on the economy and international affairs. Views expressed by him are his own and do not reflect our policy.<\/em><\/p>\n<\/div>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

There are moments in history when the departure of an army carries almost as much meaning as its arrival. September 30, 2026, is one such moment for Iraq. After more than two decades, the United States is completing its military withdrawal from Iraq. The departure, agreed between Washington and Baghdad in 2024, ends the US-led coalition\u2019s military mission in the country. For many Iraqis, it closes one of the most painful chapters in the country\u2019s modern history. For Iran and its allies, it removes an important counterweight to their influence.…<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[19],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-1938","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-english"],"gutentor_comment":0,"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/ipp-news.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/1938","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/ipp-news.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/ipp-news.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/ipp-news.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/ipp-news.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcomments&post=1938"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/ipp-news.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/1938\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/ipp-news.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fmedia&parent=1938"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/ipp-news.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcategories&post=1938"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/ipp-news.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Ftags&post=1938"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}