{"id":2709,"date":"2026-10-15T10:04:20","date_gmt":"2026-10-15T05:04:20","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/ipp-news.com\/?p=2709"},"modified":"2026-10-15T10:04:20","modified_gmt":"2026-10-15T05:04:20","slug":"prolonged-war-renewed-disruptions-pose-biggest-risk-to-middle-east-region-imf-says","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/ipp-news.com\/?p=2709","title":{"rendered":"Prolonged war, renewed disruptions pose biggest risk to Middle East region, IMF says"},"content":{"rendered":"<div>\n<p><strong>Prolonged war in the Middle East and further disruptions to energy production, shipping routes or critical infrastructure pose the biggest risk to economies \u200bin the Middle East and Central Asia, the International Monetary Fund said \u200con Thursday.<\/strong><\/p>\n<p>Jihad Azour, the IMF\u2019s director for the Middle East and Central Asia, told reporters the war was imposing a highly uneven economic shock to the broader region, with directly affected states \u200bunder severe pressure.<\/p>\n<p>\u201cThe outlook depends critically on how quickly energy production and \u200btrade normalize, and on countries\u2019 ability to preserve macroeconomic stability,\u201d Azour \u2060said at a news conference during the annual meetings of the IMF and World \u200bBank in Bangkok.<\/p>\n<p>Pre-war surpluses, alternative routes, demand adjustments and substantial inventory drawdowns had helped \u200bcontain the impact of the energy shock caused by the US-Israeli-led attacks on Iran and Tehran\u2019s subsequent closure of the Strait of Hormuz.<\/p>\n<p>\u201cThese buffers bought time, but they are finite. Inventories are lower, \u200bspare capacity is tighter, and renewed disruption could generate much larger price adjustments,\u201d \u200bhe said.<\/p>\n<p>The global lender is forecasting a deep contraction of 1.3% in the Middle East, North Africa \u200cand \u2060Pakistan region after growth of 3.3% in 2025, followed by a strong, but uneven rebound in 2027, when growth is expected to hit 6.6%, Azour said, noting substantial differences across the region.<\/p>\n<p>Oil-exporting countries directly affected by the war would see a significant \u200bcontraction in 2026 and \u200ba sharp rebound \u2060in growth in 2027 as energy production normalises, but output was expected to remain below pre-war medium-term projections.<\/p>\n<p>The economies of oil-importing \u200bcountries in the region had been resilient and were expected to \u200bremain so, \u2060he said.<\/p>\n<p>The Caucasus and Central Asia region had weathered the shock relatively well, and inflation was expected to continue declining from elevated levels. The IMF is projecting growth to \u2060slow \u200bto 5.2% in 2026 and then 5% in 2027, \u200bfrom growth of 6.2% in 2025.<\/p>\n<p>Azour said policymakers should prioritise price stability, focus on rebuilding fiscal buffers \u200b, and expand their capacity to withstand future shocks.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Prolonged war in the Middle East and further disruptions to energy production, shipping routes or critical infrastructure pose the biggest risk to economies \u200bin the Middle East and Central Asia, the International Monetary Fund said \u200con Thursday. Jihad Azour, the IMF\u2019s director for the Middle East and Central Asia, told reporters the war was imposing a highly uneven economic shock to the broader region, with directly affected states \u200bunder severe pressure. \u201cThe outlook depends critically on how quickly energy production and \u200btrade normalize, and on countries\u2019 ability to preserve macroeconomic&hellip;<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[19],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-2709","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-english"],"gutentor_comment":0,"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/ipp-news.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/2709","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/ipp-news.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/ipp-news.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/ipp-news.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/ipp-news.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcomments&post=2709"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/ipp-news.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/2709\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/ipp-news.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fmedia&parent=2709"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/ipp-news.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcategories&post=2709"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/ipp-news.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Ftags&post=2709"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}