{"id":3720,"date":"2026-11-03T12:03:47","date_gmt":"2026-11-03T07:03:47","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/ipp-news.com\/?p=3720"},"modified":"2026-11-03T12:03:47","modified_gmt":"2026-11-03T07:03:47","slug":"us-voters-in-a-sour-economic-mood-heading-into-midterm-elections","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/ipp-news.com\/?p=3720","title":{"rendered":"US voters in a sour economic mood heading into midterm elections"},"content":{"rendered":"
\n

On the eve of elections<\/u><\/a> that will decide whether President Donald Trump\u2019s Republican Party keeps control of Congress, voters\u2019 minds are on the economy, \u200bwith high and rising prices a key issue and many blaming his policies<\/u><\/a>, specifically tariffs and the Iran war, for the nagging inflation.<\/strong><\/p>\n

In short, Americans are in a sour mood.<\/p>\n

The numbers, however, tell a \u200cmore complex story.<\/p>\n

On the upside, the unemployment rate remains historically low, more people than ever are employed, overall economic growth is solid, and the artificial intelligence investment boom has \u2014 until recently \u2014 been driving up the stock market, padding retirement accounts for millions.<\/p>\n

Countering that momentum, of course, is inflation. Though not nearly as high as just a few years ago, it is elevated and ever-present enough that people feel the pinch whenever they fill their gas tanks, pay a utility bill or order a meal.<\/p>\n

Trump is not on the ballot on November 3, but voters have \u200bhis economic record in mind as they head to the polls. And the vibe is sceptical, if not downright grumpy.<\/p>\n

<\/a>The sourpuss economy<\/strong><\/h3>\n

Consumer surveys show the mood has generally deteriorated since Trump\u2019s second term began in January \u200b2025, though there are nuances: One widely tracked measure of confidence published by the Conference Board perked up in October, while the University of Michigan\u2019s consumer sentiment index registered a near-record \u2060low.<\/p>\n

Brian Jacobsen, chief economic strategist at Annex Wealth Management, said the confidence index tracks the macroeconomy, while the sentiment index is \u201cmore personal,\u201d asking people how they are doing financially and how affordable they find their lives to be.<\/p>\n

\u201cSentiment is the \u200bbigger driver of election outcomes, but confidence is the bigger driver of markets,\u201d he said.<\/p>\n

One argument for macroeconomic confidence derives from the labour market.<\/p>\n

Firms may not be hiring much, and new graduates are having a hard time finding jobs, \u200bbut companies are not conducting mass layoffs either.<\/p>\n

Weekly unemployment insurance claims are near a 57-year low.<\/p>\n

The unemployment rate, at 4.2% in September<\/u><\/a>, has measured no higher than 4.5% for five straight years \u2014 the longest stretch on record.<\/p>\n

Households feel it. The Conference Board measures the gap between consumers who say jobs are plentiful and those who say they are hard to get, and that differential widened last month, indicating an improved outlook for jobs.<\/p>\n

There is also the updraft from stock market gains to consider.<\/p>\n

The main US equity indexes have notched dozens of record \u200bhighs this year, as Trump frequently reminds attendees at his rallies.<\/p>\n

Most Americans hold some stock, though higher-income households have disproportionately more.<\/p>\n

Outlays by higher-income households, buoyed by the rising value of their stock holdings, have helped underpin consumer spending, which \u200bhas been a strong driver of economic growth.<\/p>\n

Data last week showed the US economy grew<\/u><\/a> at a 3.4% annualised pace last quarter, its strongest performance this year.<\/p>\n

\u201cConsumer surveys can be a little gloomy, but the consumer behaviour is quite strong,\u201d Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent \u200ctold CNBC \u2060last week.<\/p>\n

\u201cCorporate behaviour is actually quite strong, and I think with tax policy, trade policy, energy policy and the regulatory policy, we\u2019ve got a very good mix.\u201d<\/p>\n

AI-related demand is fuelling many of the gains in the stock market and in the real economy, and business investment rose at an annualised 12.7% pace last quarter.<\/p>\n

<\/a>\u2018Sharp reset\u2019<\/strong><\/h3>\n

Still, some economists warn of potential fragility \u2014 and cracks may be starting to appear.<\/p>\n

As the midterm elections neared, a wave of corporate earnings results from the likes of Amazon.com<\/u><\/a> <\/u>and Intel<\/u><\/a> added to growing worries about the sustainability of the AI spending boom, sending indexes such as the Nasdaq Composite sharply lower.<\/p>\n

\u201cA sharp reset in AI expectations could undermine corporate confidence, trigger a pullback in capex (capital expenditure) and weigh on GDP growth, just as higher \u200boil prices, tariffs and tighter immigration restrictions push inflation higher, \u200braising the risk of a stagflationary environment in \u2060which growth slows even as price pressures persist,\u201d Torsten Slok, chief economist at Apollo Global Management, wrote in a mid-October note.<\/p>\n

Putting such a dire scenario aside, any economist or Federal Reserve official will acknowledge that frustration with inflation is top of mind for many households.<\/p>\n

Although it has slowed since its 2022 peak, inflation remains well above the 2% target the central bank equates \u200bwith its price-stability mandate.<\/p>\n

For much of Trump\u2019s second term in the White House, wages were growing faster than prices, meaning that workers could expect their paychecks to cover as much or more of \u200bthe same goods and services \u2060as before.<\/p>\n

That situation changed earlier this year after the US and Israel launched attacks on Iran in what has become an eight-month war that has lifted fuel prices globally and contributed to price acceleration more broadly.<\/p>\n

Demand for AI is also adding to inflation, Fed policymakers and economists say. Wage growth is also slowing.<\/p>\n

Consumer prices and average hourly earnings have both risen about 5.5% since January 2025, data from the US Bureau of Labour Statistics shows.<\/p>\n

The upshot: from a purchasing-power perspective, workers are no worse \u2060off, but also no \u200bbetter off, than when Trump came into office in January 2025.<\/p>\n

The US central bank raised its policy rate<\/u><\/a> in September and is expected to increase borrowing \u200bcosts again in December, delivering what Fed Chairman Kevin Warsh calls \u201cmonetary medicine\u201d to bring down inflation without, he says, the need \u201cto throw sand in the gears<\/u><\/a> of the economy and throw people out of work.\u201d<\/p>\n

Longer-term borrowing costs have also risen, adding to the affordability woes that voters have cited as weighing \u200bon them.<\/p>\n

The combination of 30-year mortgage rates that have topped 7% and a shortage of housing supply that has driven up home prices has conspired to put home purchases out of reach for many people.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

On the eve of elections that will decide whether President Donald Trump\u2019s Republican Party keeps control of Congress, voters\u2019 minds are on the economy, \u200bwith high and rising prices a key issue and many blaming his policies, specifically tariffs and the Iran war, for the nagging inflation. In short, Americans are in a sour mood. The numbers, however, tell a \u200cmore complex story. On the upside, the unemployment rate remains historically low, more people than ever are employed, overall economic growth is solid, and the artificial intelligence investment boom has…<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[19],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-3720","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-english"],"gutentor_comment":0,"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/ipp-news.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/3720","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/ipp-news.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/ipp-news.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/ipp-news.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/ipp-news.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcomments&post=3720"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/ipp-news.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/3720\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/ipp-news.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fmedia&parent=3720"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/ipp-news.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcategories&post=3720"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/ipp-news.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Ftags&post=3720"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}