The outlook for higher demand and a drop in supply growth from outside OPEC+ would make it easier for OPEC+ to proceed with its plan to pump more barrels to regain market share after years of cuts aimed at supporting the market.
World oil demand will rise by 1.38 million barrels per day in 2026, the OPEC said in a monthly report, up 100,000 bpd from the previous forecast. This year’s expectation was left unchanged.
The forecasts are at the higher end of the industry range, as the agency expects a slower energy transition than some other forecasters such as the IEA, which expects world demand to rise by just 700,000 bpd this year.
In the report, OPEC also increased its forecast for world economic growth slightly this year to 3.0% as US President Donald Trump’s administration signs some trade deals and the economies of India, China and Brazil outperform expectations.
“Economic data at the start of the second half of 2025 further confirm the resilience of global growth, despite persistent uncertainties related to US-centred trade tensions and broader geopolitical risks,” OPEC said.
Brent crude was steady after OPEC published the report, trading close to $66 a barrel. It reached a four-year low near $58 in April.
The drop in oil prices this year, partly due to OPEC+ output hikes and concern about US tariffs, has put pressure on the economics of US shale output, analysts say.
OPEC+ sources have told Reuters that the group’s policy shift to raise output after years of supporting the market with cuts was driven partly to take on US shale production.
OPEC’s report on Tuesday said US output of tight oil, another term for shale, will decline by 100,000 bpd in 2026 versus last month’s outlook for flat output year-on-year.