The Durand Line traces back to colonial-era decisions, cutting through tribal lands and dividing ethnic communities, but its legitimacy is contested by Afghanistan to this day. This makes the Pakistan-Afghanistan border more politically fraught than US-Mexico, which is internationally recognised by both governments. Many crossings at the US-Mexico border are driven by economic migration or pursuit of better living standards therefore it is more voluntary; migration across the Durand Line is often linked to conflict, displacement, refugees or militancy — thus it carries a very different humanitarian and security dimension. The Durand Line divides tribes and ethnic groups with deep kinship, so it is a hard border that threatens the social fabric. The Pakistan-Afghanistan border is deeply entangled with insurgency, terrorism, militant groups and insurgent sanctuaries — so border dynamics are not only about migration or smuggling, but also national security. US-Mexico border, while plagued by crime and smuggling, is not a front line of military conflict between the two states.
I spent last week reading the works of Fernand Braudel (1902-1985), a French geographer and historian who was unlike Halford Mackinder, Nicholas Spykman or Alfred Mahan, who were more focused on the roles of kings, wars and power on geography to give us their geopolitical theories; Braudel did something different. He gave us no theory but instead focused on mountains, seas, climate, trade routes and landscapes to determine how they influence our culture and shape our identity and destiny. He helps us understand the fertilising effect history creates when we study it with reference to geography, demography, materialism and environment. In the context of Pakistan’s problem with Afghanistan, I find it suitable to share how he views history in his concept of varying wavelengths of time. The first wavelength at the base is of ‘slow changing geographical time’ of landscapes that enables or constrains, something that is so vividly explained by Shahbaz Rana in his latest piece.
Braudel’s second wavelength, a faster one, is referred to as conjectures: the systemic change in demography, economics, agriculture, society and politics. These conjectures are part of a continuous process that locks us, both Pakistan and the US, with Afghanistan and Mexico respectively. Braudel’s third wavelength is a short-term cycle, which, combining both the almost permanent ‘enablers and constraints’ of the first cycle and the conjectures of the second cycle, combines and creates. He calls it the hidden structures of politics and diplomacy against which human life is continuously played out.
The US misread and misunderstood Afghanistan’s ‘enablers and the constrainers’ and, resultantly had to pull out of Afghanistan after two decades of misadventure. A conjecture is an opinion or conclusion based on incomplete information. Conjectures need the real attention of our policy makers. Mexico registered far less in the American elite imagination than Israel, China, Russia, or, for that matter, the many global responsibilities that the Americans undertook as a global hegemon during the world’s unipolar moment. In geopolitics, correctly understanding where we live is more important than who we are. The realisation that Mexico and some Central American states are creating a hostile orbit in the American world is one of the factors that pushed President Trump to advance his theory of America First.
Mexico shares almost 2000 miles of border with America; Mexican Americans constitute about 13% of the American population, and 85% of Mexican exports go straight to America. According to an estimate, by the year 2000, six of the twelve important cities on the US side of the border were over 90% Hispanic. Charles Truxillo, a professor from the University of New Mexico, predicts that by 2080, the southwestern states of the US and the northern states of Mexico will band together to form a new country. Bordered by oceans from east and west and to the north by the Canadian Arctic, it is the south from where America is undermined. It is the southwest from where it is vulnerable. Either you can unify power or balance against it. The US today is focused on balancing against Mexico.
Pakistan, in case of its relationship with Afghanistan, must realise and work on the dictum that a world balanced is a world free. We should, for the time being, give up on the concept of seeing Afghanistan as a state that will help us unify power. We must create and then preserve the balance of power against Afghanistan. This is difficult to achieve against the shadowy threat of unconventional warfare, suicide bombings and unrelenting acts of terrorism being perpetrated by the Taliban regime against Pakistan. It is here that understanding the short-term cycle of Braudel’s third wavelength is important. The hidden diplomacy and politics of managing the Afghan problem. Afghanistan should be a central priority to our elite imagination.
The Taliban regime in Afghanistan is not there forever. Future decades will see rails, roads and pipelines connecting Eurasia through Central Asia with Afghanistan and Pakistan. Today, sixty-five percent of Afghanistan lives within 35 miles of the main road system, making only 80 of the 342 districts admissible to central control. The entire Afghanistan is hardly being governed. What we need to invest in is to change the unruly nature of our border region with Afghanistan. Not an easy task, but one that should fetch our absolute attention and our eagerness to draw support from the regional states. It is not just Pakistan but the entire region that is trapped by the disorderly behaviour of the Taliban regime in a dysfunctional state. Something that cannot be allowed to continue forever.