As Pakistan embraces the new year, such concerns are swirling around for all the right and wrong reasons. The news cycle is still recovering from the hangover of the last sunsets, first fireworks and the innocent exuberance that comes with looking ahead. It’s an annual ritual, all this, and yet it allows us a short reprieve from what was, and what could be.
The doomsayers are already at it. New year, new problems, new crises, new conflicts. It’s almost like Billy Joel is updating his song about who started the fire: Saudis and Emiratis at each other’s throats, Trump attacking Venezuela, Israel threatening Iran, and India — well what can one say about India without shaking one’s head in disappointment — yes, India expelling Bangladeshi cricketers. The new-ness of the new year has its limits.
Donald Trump’s waging of peace also has its limits, as evidenced by the aerial onslaught on Caracas. This is the year that Trump wants the Nobel peace prize that he should have, as per him, got last year. Hard to say what impact the visuals of his latest firebombing will have on the members of the Nobel committee. But as the present years have proved, unsettlingly so, that the world as we knew it is not the world that we are being forced to adjust to. It is a world where missiles speak louder than morality, and where the rule of law is only for those who make the law.
Closer to home, things are not too dissimilar.
There is a feel-good factor, we are told. The country is turning a corner and readying for a take-off, we are told. Our delicious thumping of India has got us a seat on the high table, and goodies will flow our way, we are also told. In this year, we are told, we are going to leave many, if not most, of our troubles behind and get back on the road to recovery and prosperity.
And why not. These are addictive things to hear. For so long have we wallowed in self-pity, and bemoaned our lack of direction and resolve, that finally when we hear there is hope, there is clarity, and there is some purpose — when we hear all of this and more, we allow ourselves to believe that all can actually be well.
But too much of something — anything — can’t all be well. Underneath the veneer of carefully calibrated positivity, bubbles the harshness of economic, political and social reality.
Economically, stability is not translating into growth. Not yet, at least. For the economic feel-good factor to leap from the finance ministry’s website into the bazaars and homes of urban and rural Pakistan, growth must translate into increasing jobs, growing incomes and rising investments. When this does not happen, or is slow to happen, people begin to complain. And decision-makers begin to grumble. Is it a surprise then that the handpicked finance minister is under growing criticism from unlikely quarters?
Politically, stability remains dependent on the level of its enforcement. The fact that the ruling setup faces no imminent threat does not mean that convulsions have ceased. They have just transformed into undercurrents. Discontent has few outlets. But it simmers. Imran Khan may stay in jail through the year. His party may remain in tatters. His vote bank may remain silent. This may provide government enough space to play outside the crease. But one sharp turn of the ball, and the bails could come off.
Socially, fundamental rights and fundamental access to education, health and justice remain in stress. As the federal government struggles with financial solvency, the provinces have little to show in terms of social services despite being flush with cash. The story of governance as it impacts the quality of life of citizens remains a story of heartbreak and disdain. Nothing suggests that 2026 could see dramatic improvements and reforms in the social sectors.
And yet, this is the year when Pakistan has a genuine shot at breaking out of the self-inflicted downward spiral. The previous year has set 2026 up for an opportunity that does not come very often. It is widely expected that this year will be a year of conflict. In Europe, the Middle East, South America, and perhaps South Asia, old wars could continue to generate violence and instability across borders, and new conflicts could re-open wounds that bleed from historical grievances. The previous year saw Pakistan gaining relevance as a regional power and finding significant diplomatic space with key global powers. This is the year that Pakistan can leverage this status to enhance its diplomatic heft, strengthen its finances and flex its muscles if neighbours start to harbour wrong ideas.
This positioning, let be said, is a double-edged sword. It can cut both ways. Conflicts can be unpredictable. Alliances can be untrustworthy. Big powers can flip sides. What counts at the end, what is the only guarantee against external shocks, is internal stability and financial strength. This year therefore is the perfect time to focus on both by taking advantage of the position we have gained in 2025. This will require looking beyond narrow political interests and focusing on strategic goals.
When all seems well, be afraid. But be afraid not of what we cannot control, but of the opportunities we could miss if we don’t keep our eye on the ball.