The glaring contradiction measures the difference between optics and hard reality. Within the optics domain everyone desires to look and sound reasonable. The hard reality, on the other hand, is based on cold and calculated assessment of the situation and the advantage that accrues in a zero-sum conflict.
So why is Fawad Chaudhry insisting all combatants sit down and talk? Is he living in cuckoo land?
This week he along with former PTI leaders Imran Ismail, Mehmood Maulvi and Dr Shahzad Wasim organised the first meeting of the National Dialogue Committee in Islamabad. NDC, as it is called, has been formed to initiate some form of dialogue between important stakeholders in order to, as Fawad Chaudhry says, ‘lower the temperature’ in the country. The meeting was attended, among others, by former prime minister Shahid Khaqan Abbasi as well as members from MQM, Jamaat-e-Islami, other parties and senior lawyers and journalists. At the end of the meeting a declaration was announced which urged various confidence building measures between the government and the opposition.
So far so good.
Here’s the problem though. The establishment is in no mood to talk to the PTI. Unless on its own terms. Imran Khan is in no mood to talk to the establishment. Unless on his own terms. The PML-N is in no mood to enable the establishment and Imran Khan to talk to each other. Unless such talking burns any remaining bridges between them. The rest don’t matter.
Fawad Chaudhry is a smart politician. He understands the situation as it exists. Why is he chasing a fantasy? Unless he knows something others don’t.
What could this be? To figure it out, one needs a deeper dive into not just the present state of affairs but, more importantly, the thought process defining today for tomorrow and possibly the day after. Let’s start with the foundational question: what defines Pakistan’s acutest challenge: domestic or international?
Consider the following: Donald Trump’s transformation from isolationist to an imperialist president is re-drawing most geo-strategic calculations across the world. The so-called ‘Donroe Doctrine’ (a Trumpian twist to the Monroe Doctrine) has put Latin America on notice. After Trump’s kidnapping of the Venezuelan president, and American control of his country and its oil reserves, countries like Colombia, Mexico and Cuba are bracing for the worst. Trump is flexing military muscle in naked pursuit of US interests. A new and unexpected crisis is engulfing the international system. In every crisis, there are challenges and opportunities.
But what does this have to do with Fawad Chaudhry? Wait.
In Europe a sense of acute insecurity has descended like a cold wet blanket in a snowy night. With each passing day it is becoming alarmingly obvious to EU leaders that Russia will in fact get what it wants in Ukraine. If this wasn’t bad enough, Trump’s threat against Denmark-owned Greenland means Europe will, one way or another, have to bend the knee. And with NATO’s future under threat because of Trump’s waning interest in the alliance, European nations now have to figure out how to survive in a big bad world without the guarantee of US protection. In a world increasingly being divided in American, Chinese and Russian spheres, Europe finds itself in neither.
But what does this have to do with Fawad Chaudhry? Wait.
In the Middle East, chaos and uncertainty continue to trend. The so-called Gaza peace plan is failing spectacularly and Israel’s bloodlust remains as strong as ever.
But what does this… ? Yes, wait.
Iran is rocked by nationwide protests. Pakistan has issued a travel advisory to its citizens and Trump has threatened to take action against the Iranian regime if it starts shooting protestors. Israel is itching to take another swing at Iran and ferociously whispering in Trump’s ear to go for a regime change. Dark clouds of another attack on Iran by Israel and the US are hovering dangerously. If Pakistan is on tenterhooks, it should.
Does this really have any connection — however convoluted — with Fawad Chaudhry? Wait.
A report by the respected news agency Bloomberg says that Turkey wants to be part of the Pakistan-Saudi Arabia strategic defence pact, and details have almost been worked out. The report says this alliance could have a deep impact on the geo-strategic dynamics of the region. All this is happening when Defence Minister Khawaja Asif has said ‘if our defence deals go through, we may not need IMF for too long.’ Reports suggest Pakistan is in advanced stages of selling aircraft and other military equipment to a number of countries. The Air Chief is currently in Iraq and the Iraqis are expected to purchase JF-17 aircraft. The Saudis may also convert their $2 billion loan into a JF-17 fighter deal. Much is happening.
And then there’s India. As well as Indian-sponsored terrorism from Afghanistan. Instability on the eastern and western borders is refusing to recede. It demands an all-hands-on-the-deck approach.
In other words, national security fueled by global and regional instability is reinforcing the strength of the hybrid regime at home. There is little pressure on the regime to show any flexibility towards the opposition. There is even less pressure to call elections or roll back pressure on the judiciary, media or other such institutions. Barring a black swan event, the system will continue to dig in its heels for the foreseeable future.
Fawad Chaudhry’s initiative is an acknowledgement of this reality, and an attempt to coax others to recognise it too. It is rooted in an idealism whose time has not come. Yet. But what Chaudhry and his colleagues realise — and many others are refusing to — is that a middle way can actually be found, at some point, that belies the zero-sum nature of the present situation. Today no one is interested. Tomorrow some could.
Keep talking about talks long enough, and one day someone will come to the table. Or be dragged to it.