Four scenarios for Israel’s next govt after election deadlock
Israelis voted on Tuesday in their highest-turnout election in decades, with exit polls showing Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s camp and that of his rival Gadi Eisenkot locked in a tight race.
Four possible scenarios could now shape the formation of Israel’s next government:
1. Coalition government
Political parties will begin negotiations to secure the 61 seats needed for a majority, although the way forward remains uncertain.
President Isaac Herzog will nominate the candidate he believes has the best chance of forming a government, which may not necessarily be the leader of the party with the most seats.
Arab Israeli parties, particularly Raam, have indicated they could work with Eisenkot’s bloc.
However, the opposition camp has kept its distance from them, viewing their support as a potential liability during the campaign.
Netanyahu’s bloc, meanwhile, has few obvious options for gaining additional seats after several smaller right-wing parties failed to cross the electoral threshold for entering parliament.
Coalition talks can be lengthy and difficult, as parties seek to advance their own interests, often resulting in fragile governments.
Netanyahu took 58 days to form his government after the previous election in November 2022.
2. Minority government
If neither bloc secures a majority, a candidate could attempt to govern without 61 seats by relying on support from other lawmakers on individual votes.
Arab Israeli lawmakers could play a decisive role in this scenario. Their community accounts for around 20% of Israel’s population and generally identifies as Palestinian.
Raam, led by Mansour Abbas, has previously played a kingmaker role.
It became the first Arab party to join an Israeli government when it entered the short-lived coalition led by Naftali Bennett and Yair Lapid in 2021-2022.
The Joint List, another Arab political movement, has indicated it would be unlikely to join a coalition outright but has offered a “safety net” to any government that removes Netanyahu from power.
Political commentator Tal Elovitz said the particularly high turnout among Arab voters “indicates a strong desire for partnership”.
Eisenkot has not publicly considered this possibility, while Netanyahu repeatedly warned Jewish voters during his campaign that an opposition victory could bring Arab parties into government.
“Bottom line, at the moment, it appears there is a possibility of forming a minority government headed by Eisenkot, but this could still shift depending on the final results,” Elovitz said.
3. National unity government
Despite Israel’s deep political polarisation, a national unity government could offer an alternative to the current deadlock and potentially produce a less extreme administration.
Israeli commentators have often discussed the possibility of Netanyahu abandoning his far-right allies and ultra-Orthodox parties to form a broad coalition with Eisenkot, who shares many of his views on security issues.
Such a government would also exclude Arab parties.
A poll published on October 16 found that 55% of Israelis would prefer a national unity government to another election if the vote failed to produce a clear majority.
There is a precedent for such an arrangement. In 2020, Netanyahu and Benny Gantz, a retired general who, like Eisenkot, appealed to centrist voters, agreed to share power after three elections in less than a year.
The agreement provided for a rotation of the prime minister’s office, but the partnership collapsed after a year, leading to another election.
A similar arrangement now would face considerable opposition from both camps, particularly the opposition bloc, which has centred its campaign on removing Netanyahu from office and portraying him as unfit to lead.
4. Political deadlock and fresh elections
If no candidate succeeds in forming a government, Israel could be forced to hold another election.
Israel held four elections between April 2019 and March 2021 as politicians failed to form a stable governing coalition.
The candidate nominated by the president generally has 28 days to form a government, with a possible 14-day extension. However, other procedural options could delay an immediate return to the polls.