The UAE, one of the group’s largest and most influential producers, said it would formally leave on May 1. The announcement immediately raised questions over the future cohesion of a cartel that has shaped global energy markets for more than six decades.
A statement carried by the state-run WAM news agency said the UAE would “pull out” on Friday to focus on national interests. “This decision reflects the UAE’s long-term strategic and economic vision and evolving energy profile,” it said.
“During our time in the organization, we made significant contributions and even greater sacrifices for the benefit of all. However, the time has come to focus our efforts on what our national interest dictates.”
UAE Energy Minister Suhail Mohamed al-Mazrouei described the move as a “policy decision” taken after a comprehensive review of the country’s long-term energy strategy. He said the decision had not been discussed with other member states and was based on national priorities and evolving global demand.
“This is a policy decision; it has been taken after a careful look at current and future policies related to levels of production,” Mazrouei told Reuters, adding that the world would require more energy in the coming years and that the UAE intended to position itself to meet that demand.
The exit of the UAE – the fourth-largest producer within OPEC+ – is widely seen as weakening the organisation’s ability to coordinate supply and stabilise prices. Analysts said the move could give the UAE greater flexibility to expand output once export constraints ease, including shipments through the Gulf.
The UAE, which has previously baulked at OPEC production quotas, has long held spare capacity, making it one of the few producers capable of rapidly increasing output. Oil markets reacted cautiously, with prices trimming gains following the announcement.
Mazrouei, UAE energy minister, suggested the immediate impact would be limited due to broader constraints on global shipping routes, particularly the Strait of Hormuz – a critical chokepoint linking the Gulf to global markets – where geopolitical tensions have already disrupted flows.
The Strait normally carries roughly a fifth of the world’s crude oil and liquefied natural gas. However, shipping has been severely affected following attacks on Iran by the United States and Israel, which have already distorted supply chains across the region.
OPEC+ production has been under pressure throughout the crisis, with data showing the group’s share of global output falling sharply in recent months as Gulf producers struggle to export crude. Analysts expect further shifts as the UAE exits the alliance.
The decision has also been interpreted as a political signal. Some observers see it as aligning with broader regional recalibrations, including closer UAE ties with the United States following the 2020 Abraham Accords, and a more independent foreign policy posture.
The UAE’s departure carries implications beyond energy markets, potentially reshaping power dynamics within the Gulf itself. Market analysts noted that the country’s exit could ultimately increase competition among producers once geopolitical conditions stabilise.
Historically, OPEC has relied heavily on Saudi Arabia and the UAE to provide spare capacity that can be deployed during supply disruptions. The loss of one of these key stabilising producers is expected to weaken that mechanism.
The move comes at a time of unprecedented volatility in global energy markets, with the Iran war severely disrupting Gulf infrastructure and prompting widespread production adjustments. Some OPEC+ members have already been forced to cut output due to export bottlenecks and security risks.
Market analysts expect that the UAE could pursue a more aggressive output strategy outside OPEC constraints. The country has developed partial bypass infrastructure, including pipeline routes to the port of Fujairah, but these remain limited compared with full access through Hormuz.
OPEC, founded in 1960 and expanded through OPEC+, has long been responsible for managing a significant share of global oil supply. Its influence peaked in earlier decades but has gradually declined with the rise of non-OPEC producers, particularly in North America.
The UAE is the latest in a series of departures from the organisation in recent years, though it is by far the most significant in terms of production capacity and geopolitical weight. Analysts warned that the exit could accelerate fragmentation within the wider alliance.