There are clear signals to harness this potential, particularly through offshore oil and gas exploration. But this may touch strategic red lines given the geopolitical situation along Pakistan’s coastline, which dominates the country’s geo-economic potential.
The blue economy, which covers all economic activities related to oceans, seas, and coastal areas, holds immense potential for Pakistan. With a coastline stretching over 1,000 kilometres and an Exclusive Economic Zone (EEZ) of around 290,000 square kilometres, Pakistan is well-positioned to benefit from marine resources. The blue economy can contribute significantly to economic growth, job creation, and sustainable development.
The maritime sector, including shipping, ports, and logistics, is a critical component of the blue economy. With 95% of Pakistan’s trade conducted through sea routes, enhancing maritime infrastructure can boost trade and economic connectivity. The fisheries and aquaculture sector also has potential to create over one million jobs, strengthen food security, and increase exports. But with only two and a half ports (Gwadar is not fully operational) and underdeveloped fisheries infrastructure, much more needs to be done.
Renewable energy offers another promising avenue. Offshore wind and tidal energy could provide sustainable and clean energy, reducing reliance on fossil fuels. Coastal tourism, marine biotechnology, and mineral exploration can also generate revenue and promote regional development.
Yet Pakistan’s blue economy faces serious geopolitical risks. The strategic location of its coastline makes it a focal point for regional and global powers. Disputes in the South China Sea, the US Indo-Pacific strategy, and the Quadrilateral Security Dialogue (QUAD) involving Australia, India, Japan, and the US are examples of geopolitical tensions that could affect Pakistan’s maritime activities. At the same time, instability in Balochistan, driven by foreign involvement and local socio-economic issues, threatens projects such as the China-Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC).
Climate change adds another critical risk. Rising sea levels threaten coastal infrastructure, livelihoods, and ecosystems. Pakistan is among the top ten countries most vulnerable to climate change, and its blue economy will be deeply affected if resilience is not built.
The very recent interest in offshore oil and gas exploration is probably the most important potential both in terms of gains and challenges. It needs substantial investment and marine security related resources. While Pakistan has received expressions of interest from many potential investors, particularly the United States and Turkey, one cannot ignore interest of China as well due to CPEC and Gwadar port.
The concessions for offshore exploration are not simple FDI cases, but determinants of geoeconomic strategic shift that Pakistan is at the brink of taking. More so due to balancing act, if possible at all, between China and United States. To harness the potential of the blue economy, Pakistan needs a strategic and comprehensive approach. This requires internal dialogue and extensive consultations with strategic partners such as China, the US, Turkey, and Gulf states. Exploration concessions must follow thorough deliberation and be granted on the least binding terms possible.
At the sectoral level, the recently launched 10-year National Fisheries and Aquaculture Policy (2025-2035) is a step forward. It seeks to modernise fisheries, improve sustainability, and boost exports. Still, more action is needed. Pakistan should also prioritise environmental stewardship and climate resilience. Protecting marine ecosystems and promoting sustainable practices are essential for the long-term viability of the blue economy.
Secondly, institutional reforms and capacity-building are crucial. Strengthening regulatory frameworks, improving governance, and fostering collaboration between provincial and federal institutions can enhance the effectiveness of blue economy initiatives.
Addressing socio-economic issues in coastal regions, particularly Balochistan, is vital. Investing in these areas can reduce terrorism risks and create a stable environment for economic activity. International cooperation will also be crucial. Engaging with global organisations, attracting foreign investment, and leveraging technical assistance can accelerate development of the blue economy.
In conclusion, Pakistan’s blue economy holds tremendous potential for economic growth and sustainable development. However, realising this potential requires addressing geopolitical risks, implementing effective policies, and fostering a collaborative and resilient approach.
With the right strategies and commitment, Pakistan can unlock the vast opportunities offered by its marine resources and contribute to a prosperous and sustainable future. The green signal towards the blue economy should be seen as a slow, steady start — careful enough to avoid crossing red lines down the road.
THE WRITER IS AN INTERNATIONAL ECONOMIST