For over a decade, Bangladesh’s politics revolved around Hasina’s strong-handed governance, economic growth narrative and an iron-fisted approach toward dissent. However, allegations of electoral engineering, shrinking democratic space and an increasingly polarised society eventually caught up with her political project. The BNP’s resurgence reflects not merely a transfer of power but a deeper undercurrent of political fatigue and nationalist reassertion among segments of Bangladeshi society. The immediate regional response was telling. Both Narendra Modi and Shehbaz Sharif were among the first global leaders to congratulate Tarique Rahman. The optics were significant. For India, which had invested heavily in its relationship with Sheikh Hasina, the early congratulatory message signalled a pragmatic pivot. For Pakistan, it represented an opening, an opportunity that was decades in the making.
India’s ties with Bangladesh under Hasina had reached unprecedented levels of strategic cooperation. Security coordination, connectivity projects, trade expansion and counter-terrorism collaboration defined the relationship. New Delhi viewed Hasina as a reliable partner who addressed India’s security concerns, particularly in its sensitive northeastern region. Yet the BNP has historically carried a softer corner for Pakistan and has often positioned itself as more sceptical of India’s regional role. Anti-India sentiments remain a potent political force in Bangladesh, especially among constituencies that perceive economic asymmetry and political overreach by New Delhi. The BNP’s electoral mandate partly reflects that mood. However, the road ahead for India-Bangladesh relations will not be straightforward.
A central complicating factor is Sheikh Hasina herself. Following her conviction and death sentence in absentia for crimes against humanity, the incoming government is expected to formally seek her extradition. India currently hosts her, placing New Delhi in an awkward diplomatic bind. Extraditing Hasina could strain India’s long-cultivated political networks in Bangladesh and send an uncomfortable message about abandoning long-time allies. Refusing extradition, on the other hand, risks souring ties with the new government at a delicate juncture. For the BNP leadership, pursuing accountability is central to consolidating domestic legitimacy.
This delicate balancing act will test the maturity of India’s neighbourhood diplomacy. New Delhi may attempt to compartmentalise the extradition issue while preserving strategic cooperation. Yet domestic pressures in both countries could narrow diplomatic space.
For Pakistan, the evolving scenario presents a rare strategic window. Relations between Islamabad and Dhaka have remained cool, even distant, since 1971. Efforts at rapprochement were episodic and often overshadowed by historical baggage.
But politics is rarely static in South Asia. There is a discernible desire within sections of Bangladesh’s new political elite to diversify foreign partnerships. Economic pragmatism and regional connectivity are driving considerations. Pakistan can capitalise on this moment by adopting a forward-looking rather than historical approach. Islamabad must avoid appearing opportunistic and should instead frame renewed ties as mutually beneficial and rooted in regional stability. The broader geopolitical contest in South Asia adds further complexity. Bangladesh sits at the crossroads of the Bay of Bengal, South Asia and Southeast Asia. Its strategic geography ensures that major powers will compete for influence.