The latest trade data from the Pakistan Bureau of Statistics reveals concerning trends in the country’s external trade performance. In April 2025, Pakistan’s trade deficit ballooned to $3.39 billion, marking a dramatic 55.2% increase from March 2025 and representing the highest monthly trade gap since August 2022. This deterioration stems from a troubling combination of declining exports and surging imports, painting a worrying picture for the nation’s balance of payments.
Exports in April 2025 fell sharply to $2.14 billion, reflecting a 19.05% decline on a month-on-month (MoM) basis and an 8.93% drop year-on-year (YoY). In contrast, imports surged to $5.53 billion — marking a 14.52% MoM rise and a 14.09% YoY increase. This sharp disparity led to a $1.2 billion jump in the trade deficit compared to the previous month.
In rupee terms, the country exported goods worth Rs601.4 billion in April 2025, while imports amounted to Rs1.55 trillion, resulting in a trade deficit of Rs952 billion. Compared to March 2025, this reflects a 55.2% increase in the deficit in dollar terms.
The cumulative data for the first ten months of the fiscal year 2024-25 (July to April) shows the trade deficit standing at $21.35 billion, up 8.81% from the same period last year. Total exports during the 10-month period reached $26.86 billion, showing a YoY increase of 6.25%, while imports rose to $48.21 billion, reflecting a 7.37% growth.
In April 2025, Pakistan recorded a trade deficit of $3.4 billionthe highest monthly deficit since August 2022, according to AHL. This significant widening of the trade gap was driven by a sharp decline in exports alongside a notable surge in imports. Exports for the month stood at $2.1 billion, reflecting a YoY decrease of 8.9% and a steep MoM fall of 19.1%. In contrast, imports rose to $5.5 billion, marking a 14.1% increase compared to April 2024 and a 14.5% rise from the previous month, making it the highest import figure since August 2022.
The cumulative trade data for the first ten months of the fiscal year 2025 (10MFY25) shows a widening trend, said AHL. During this period, exports amounted to $26.9 billion, up by 6.3% YoY, while imports surged to $48.2 billion, showing a 7.4% increase. As a result, the trade deficit expanded to $21.4 billion, representing an 8.8% YoY increase over the corresponding period of FY24.
The trend further highlights the persistent pressure on the trade balance, with a visible spike in both imports and the trade deficit in recent months, underlining growing external account challenges.
As per PBS, the trade deficit has been recorded at $3.4bn, a 55.2% MoM increase, wrote Ismail Iqbal Securities. This takes the 10MFY25 deficit to $21.4bn, up by 8.8% YoY.
Head of Research at Arif Habib Limited (AHL), Sana Tawfiq, told The Express Tribune that a key highlight from the latest trade data released by the PBS is the import bill, which has once again crossed the $5 billion mark, coming in at $5.5 billion for April 2025. This is the highest monthly import figure recorded since August 2022.
“While detailed breakdowns are still awaited, the surge in imports is broadly attributed to a revival in domestic demand across multiple sectors of the economy,” Tawfiq said.
She noted that increased consumption of petroleum products, along with higher automobile sales, are likely contributors to the rising import bill. These trends may be linked to recent monetary easing, with lower interest rates stimulating demand in key consumer and industrial segments. This uptick in economic activity is clearly reflected in the scale of imports recorded for the month.
On the external side, Tawfiq pointed to remittances as a critical factor influencing the current account outlook. Last month saw a record-high inflow of $4.1 billion — the highest-ever monthly figure — largely supported by the diaspora, including 2.4 million workers who migrated over the past three years. However, it is anticipated that remittance inflows may normalise slightly in the current month, which could reduce the cushion provided against a rising trade gap.
She cautioned that the combination of elevated imports and potentially lower remittances could shift the current account, which had recently shown signs of surplus, back into deficit territory. The final outcome will depend significantly on the actual remittance figures as well as the State Bank of Pakistan’s forthcoming trade and current account data.
Tawfiq further emphasised that the sustainability of this import trend will need to be carefully monitored. While some increase in imports can be justified by economic recovery — particularly if linked to industrial raw materials or capital goods — a surge driven by consumption or non-essential imports could exacerbate external vulnerabilities, especially in the absence of matching export growth or continued robust remittance inflows.