Pakistan’s inflation eases to 9.6% in October
Pakistan’s headline inflation eased to 9.6% year-on-year (YoY) in October 2026, down from 10.3% in September, according to data released by the Pakistan Bureau of Statistics (PBS) on Monday.
The Consumer Price Index (CPI) stood at 6.2% in October 2025.
On a month-on-month (MoM) basis, inflation rose 1.1% in October, compared with 1.3% in September and 1.7% in October 2025.
Urban inflation eased to 9.5% YoY in October from 10.1% in September. It stood at 6% in October 2025.
On a monthly basis, urban inflation increased 0.8% in October, compared with 1.3% in September and 1.4% in October last year.
Rural inflation stood at 9.8% YoY in October, down from 10.5% in September but up from 6.6% in October 2025.
On a MoM basis, rural inflation rose 1.5% in October, compared with 1.2% in September and 2.1% in October last year.
During the first four months of FY27, average CPI inflation reached 10.05%, compared with 4.79% in the corresponding period last year.
Finance ministry outlook
The finance ministry had projected inflation in the range of 9.5% to 10.5% for October, citing elevated energy and food prices in Pakistan in line with global trends.
In its Monthly Economic Update and Outlook for October 2026, the ministry said the inflation outlook would remain sensitive to international energy prices, food supplies and base effects.
It also described the domestic economic outlook for FY27 as promising, with the recovery expected to draw support from improving crop prospects, selected manufacturing industries, construction activity and expanding external earnings.
Market expectations
Several brokerage houses had projected October inflation at around 9% to 9.5%, although rising fuel and electricity costs were expected to sustain price pressures and complicate the central bank’s monetary policy outlook.
Topline Securities projected CPI inflation at 9% to 9.5% YoY in October, compared with 10.26% in September and 6.25% in October 2025.
The brokerage also warned that average inflation could exceed 9% in FY27 if international oil prices remained between $100 and $110 per barrel, compared with its earlier forecast of 8.5% to 9%.
Meanwhile, Insight Securities estimated October inflation at 9.3%, compared with 10.3% in September and 6.2% in the corresponding month last year.