Democrats open 7-point lead in race for control of Congress: Poll
Democrats hold a seven-point lead over Republicans in the race for control of Congress ahead of the November 3 midterm elections, as growing dissatisfaction with President Donald Trump and the US economy weighs on his party, according to a new NBC News poll.
The survey, conducted among registered voters from October 28 to 30, found that 52% favoured a Democratic-controlled Congress, compared with 45% who preferred Republican control.
According to the survey, Democrats managed a 21-point lead among independents. About 3% of respondents remained undecided.
The survey showed that 60% of voters disapproved of Trump’s performance, while 40% approved of his presidency.
It also found that around three-quarters of voters were unhappy with his handling of the economy, while 64% said he had failed to live up to their expectations.
Seven in 10 said the country was heading in the wrong direction.
Inflation and the cost of living ranked as voters’ top concerns, followed by government corruption, threats to democracy, and immigration and border security.
Democrats held a slight advantage on handling inflation, while Republicans led by just two points on the broader economy, a significant decline from their double-digit advantage in recent years.
The poll also found growing discontent among Republicans, with 53% dissatisfied with the economy and 37% saying Trump had failed to meet his promises.
Although his approval remained high at 93% among Republicans identifying with the MAGA movement, it fell to 54% among non-MAGA Republicans.
Despite their national lead, Democrats face obstacles. Only 29% of voters viewed the party positively, compared with 38% for Republicans, suggesting their advantage is driven more by opposition to the GOP than strong support for Democrats.
Republicans also retained leads in their own districts and in states Trump won in 2024 — areas that will be crucial to the battle for both chambers of Congress.
Democrats need to regain Republican-held ground to take control of Congress, including at least two states Trump carried by double-digit margins to win the Senate.
The survey also found Republicans narrowly ahead on handling government corruption, while both parties’ congressional leaders received relatively poor public ratings.
The poll was conducted by Democratic pollster Jeff Horwitt of Hart Research Associates and Republican pollster Bill McInturff of Public Opinion Strategies.
The findings suggest Democrats have a national advantage heading into the midterms, but their ability to turn it into a congressional majority remains uncertain.